On July 30, an industry dialogue titled "Trends in the development of the Russian automotive market for 2027–2029" took place on the VDNH grounds as part of the second large-scale "ProDvizhenie" automotive festival. Key industry players, top management of automakers and dealers, as well as representatives of industry associations discussed production prospects, government support, and changing consumer habits over the next three years. The session was moderated by renowned automotive journalist, expert, and commentator for "Radio Russia" Igor Morzharetto.
The discussion featured leading market experts: Executive Director of the ROAD Association Oleg Barinov, First Deputy General Director of NexTouch Dmitry Petrov, Head of NICIAMT at FSUE "NAMI" Denis Zagarin, Executive Director of AA "Autostat" Sergey Udalov, Head of Special Projects at EVOLUTE Vasily Chebotarev, and others.
The speakers discussed key issues in the development of automobile production in Russia, possible government incentive measures, as well as new trends in sales and distribution that will shape the market landscape in the medium term. Special attention was paid to automakers' adaptation to changing working conditions and the search for new growth points.
A New Format for Business Events
Session participants agreed that the role of exhibition venues is changing dramatically today. As noted by Petr Khachaturyan, General Director of "Auto+Automechanika Moscow", exhibitions are no longer just places to showcase new products: "They are becoming communication hubs and a new ecosystem where ideas are born, partnerships begin, and strategic decisions are discussed. We see a growing demand for open dialogue, joint discussion of solutions, strategy development, and live feedback. In the coming years, it is especially important to develop this format of interaction — because this is where the foundation is laid not only for the sustainable development of the industry, but also for strengthening the technological sovereignty of our country."
Session participants agreed that the role of exhibition venues is changing dramatically today. As noted by Petr Khachaturyan, General Director of "Auto+Automechanika Moscow", exhibitions are no longer just places to showcase new products: "They are becoming communication hubs and a new ecosystem where ideas are born, partnerships begin, and strategic decisions are discussed. We see a growing demand for open dialogue, joint discussion of solutions, strategy development, and live feedback. In the coming years, it is especially important to develop this format of interaction — because this is where the foundation is laid not only for the sustainable development of the industry, but also for strengthening the technological sovereignty of our country."
Petr Khachaturyan also emphasized that the participation of experts and partners of the "Auto+Automechanika Moscow" exhibition, with the support of the Roscongress Foundation, in the business program of the "ProDvizhenie" automotive festival allowed for expanded business contacts and enhanced exchange of experience: "We extend our gratitude to the management and team of VDNKh for the high level of organization and for creating a wonderful atmosphere for large-scale industry events. This is how a format is born where the business agenda is combined with a festive program, and professional dialogue is combined with informal communication."
Market Forecasts up to 2029
One of the most anticipated sessions focused on figures and forecasts. Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of AA "Autostat", presented a baseline scenario for market development over the next three years: "The market is very volatile, and its participants need to respond quickly to changing geopolitics, the economy, and consumer demand. We regularly revise market development scenarios and currently expect sales of new passenger cars at 1.33–1.37 million units in 2026–2027 under the baseline scenario. In 2028, a downward correction is possible amid expected economic slowdown and declining household incomes, and by 2029 we forecast a recovery in growth in the range of 1.2–1.5 million units. The decisive factors will be the geopolitical situation, overall economic dynamics, the key rate, household incomes, and the availability of auto loans."
One of the most anticipated sessions focused on figures and forecasts. Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of AA "Autostat", presented a baseline scenario for market development over the next three years: "The market is very volatile, and its participants need to respond quickly to changing geopolitics, the economy, and consumer demand. We regularly revise market development scenarios and currently expect sales of new passenger cars at 1.33–1.37 million units in 2026–2027 under the baseline scenario. In 2028, a downward correction is possible amid expected economic slowdown and declining household incomes, and by 2029 we forecast a recovery in growth in the range of 1.2–1.5 million units. The decisive factors will be the geopolitical situation, overall economic dynamics, the key rate, household incomes, and the availability of auto loans."
Systemic Approach to Regulation
Oleg Barinov, Executive Director of the ROAD Association, emphasized in his speech the need to move from piecemeal support measures to a unified regulatory model: "Today, the industry faces a set of interrelated problems: cars have become less affordable, 72% of vehicles in the Russian fleet are over 10 years old, and the average age of a car has reached 15.5 years. At the same time, the rules for sales, maintenance, and vehicle disposal remain fragmented. Support measures must become part of a unified system for regulating the full lifecycle of a vehicle."
Oleg Barinov, Executive Director of the ROAD Association, emphasized in his speech the need to move from piecemeal support measures to a unified regulatory model: "Today, the industry faces a set of interrelated problems: cars have become less affordable, 72% of vehicles in the Russian fleet are over 10 years old, and the average age of a car has reached 15.5 years. At the same time, the rules for sales, maintenance, and vehicle disposal remain fragmented. Support measures must become part of a unified system for regulating the full lifecycle of a vehicle."
Oleg Barinov proposed supplementing the effective programs of subsidized auto loans and leasing with a legislative mechanism for fleet renewal: voluntary scrappage of a technically outdated vehicle with compensation provided upon the purchase of a new Russian-made car. According to him, a transparent vehicle history, uniform service standards, and balanced responsibility for all market participants are also needed: "All these measures will contribute to the development of a civilized automotive market and the protection of the interests of honest consumers and dealers."
A New Chapter in VDNKh's History
During the business program, Timur Zeldich, Head of the VDNKh EXPO Convention and Exhibition Center, presented the newly opened complex of the same name, spoke about its concept and extensive opportunities for hosting business events of any format and scale. The new center is positioned as the country's largest convention venue, organically combining VDNKh's historical heritage with advanced technologies.
During the business program, Timur Zeldich, Head of the VDNKh EXPO Convention and Exhibition Center, presented the newly opened complex of the same name, spoke about its concept and extensive opportunities for hosting business events of any format and scale. The new center is positioned as the country's largest convention venue, organically combining VDNKh's historical heritage with advanced technologies.
The business event within the "ProDvizhenie" automotive festival clearly demonstrated that VDNH is reviving its historical mission by creating a unique format that harmoniously combines professional dialogue, a large-scale exhibition, and a vibrant event program.
For partnership inquiries with VDNH EXPO:
Tel: +7 (495) 974-33-66, +7 (916)-863-95-46
Email: expo@vdnh.ru
Website: expo.vdnh.ru
Tel: +7 (495) 974-33-66, +7 (916)-863-95-46
Email: expo@vdnh.ru
Website: expo.vdnh.ru
For participation in the "Auto+Automechanika Moscow" exhibition:
Dmitry Ermakov
Sales Director
Tel: +7 (916) 845-38-43
Email: dmitry.ermakov@auto-automechanika.ru
Web site: auto-automechanika.ru
Dmitry Ermakov
Sales Director
Tel: +7 (916) 845-38-43
Email: dmitry.ermakov@auto-automechanika.ru
Web site: auto-automechanika.ru